Attached is the PJM April 14, 2009 update of the "reliability" analysis which apparently was the basis for the decision, announced in yesterday's press release from AEP and Allegheny, to move the delivery date for PATH from June 30, 2001 to June 30, 2014.
On page 3, the "update" asserts that the "retool analysis continues to demonstrate the need for the [Trail] line by June 2001."
However, discussing the 502 Juntion to Prexy portion of the originally proposed Trail line, PJM acknowledges -- on page 11 -- that as part of the settlement which eliminated the 502 Juntion to Prexy portion of the line, the parties to the settlement agreed to come up with an alternative solution to any reliability issues on that portion of the line.
And on page 12 of this "update" PJM acknowledges that "the magnitude of the [reliability] violations [along the 502 to Prexy line is] reduced *due to lower load forecasts*."
In short, the portion of the Trail line that was cancelled can be fixed on cheaper basis because of the historic change in electric demand -- but we still need to build the rest of it because, mysteriously, it (and it alone) was not affected by the fact that demand for electricity has fallen off the table.
Yeah, right, and if you believe that I have a bridge to nowhere ...