EC February 2015

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SOLAR NOW EMPLOYS MORE AMERICANS THAN COAL
by William V. DePaulo, Esq. 23 Feb '15

23 Feb '15

[image: Moneybox] <http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox.html> A blog about business and economics. Feb. 23 2015 12:42 PM The Solar Business Now Employs More Americans Than Coal Mining By Jordan Weissmann <http://www.slate.com/authors.jordan_weissmann.html> [image: 104627690-woker-finishes-installing-solar-panels-funded-by] *You know what this guy isn't going to get? Black lung.* My colleague Dan Gross has a great piece <http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2015/02/apple_kaiser_perma…> on *Slate* about the green energy business' latest coup: Companies like Apple are now buying mass quantities of solar power, as its production costs have fallen far enough in some regions to compete economically with fossil fuels. This, of course, bodes well for the future of renewables; it's one thing when local governments start purchasing solar- or wind-generated electricity as a political gesture; it's a whole other when the private sector jumps on board for the sake of dollars and cents. Anyway, Dan's article reminded me of a cool tidbit I noticed in last week's Economic Report of the President <http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/cea_2015_erp.pdf>: While solar may just be gaining traction with corporate America, by some measures it already employs more workers than coal mining. Here's the story in two graphs from the White House. First the decline of big coal, which according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics directly employs about 80,000 workers these days. [image: pres_coal_oil_1] Economic Report of the President <http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/cea_2015_erp.pdf> And now, the rise of solar. While BLS doesn't break out data for the industry, the Solar Foundation conducts a censuslike survey of employers to track employment trends. As of now, it counts almost 174,000 workers <http://www.thesolarfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Factsheet-Nati…> . [image: pres_solar] You can argue about whether this specific comparison is fair since, as PolitiFact has reported <http://www.politifact.com/rhode-island/statements/2014/jul/06/sheldon-white…>, other organizations have estimated much higher levels of coal industry employment. A survey by the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration, for instance, reports that there are more than 123,000 coal workers if you include contractors at mines. Add in transportation jobs, such as the hands who move coal on rail or barges, and the National Mining Association says the industry directly employees some 195,000 Americans. Which number should we rely on? Its a little tough to say. Contractors at mines should obviously be counted. Transport workers are a little trickier, since many of them might still be working if, say, their railroad retooled in order to ship other kinds of freight. But even if you give the trade-group figures the benefit of the doubt, and concede that coal currently supports more jobs than solar, that could change by next year: The Solar Foundation projects <http://www.thesolarfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Factsheet-Nati…> industry employment will grow to 210,000 by the end of 2015. Whether that's sustainable is an open question. Most solar workers are hired to do installations. Presumably, as solar's growth rate slows down at some point in the future, some of those jobs will naturally disappear. And, as *Grist* notes <http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-coal-economy-jobs/>, that day could come sooner rather than later, as an important federal tax credit for renewables is scheduled to expire in 2017. So, from an employment perspective, coal may have a built-in advantage—you need workers to constantly dig more of it out of the ground to burn. Of course, that's also coal's biggest problem.

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Fwd: The Number of U.S. Oil Rigs Continues to Tumble - Bloomberg Business
by William V. DePaulo, Esq. 15 Feb '15

15 Feb '15

ICYM THIS http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/number-of-u-s-oil-rigs-co…

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Coal has tumbled more than oil......
by William V. DePaulo, Esq. 07 Feb '15

07 Feb '15

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/06/u-s-coal-producers/ U.S. Coal Producers Facing Unprecedented Times <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/06/u-s-coal-producers/>*Published Fri, Feb 6, 2015 * | Tim Maverick <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/author/tim-maverick/>, *Commodities Correspondent* [image: Print This Post] <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/06/u-s-coal-producers/print/> [image: Email This Post] <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/06/u-s-coal-producers/email/> [image: U.S. Coal Producers Facing Unprecidented Times] <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/06/u-s-coal-producers/> While oil is grabbing all the headlines lately, another fuel used to generate heat and light has tumbled even more than the black gold. Global thermal coal prices have tumbled 52% since 2011 alone. And the rout shows no signs of abating with global seaborne thermal prices hitting $62 per metric ton (mt) recently. The reason behind coal’s fall is the same as oil’s – the shale revolution led to a surplus of thermal coal globally, just as demand from China and India started weakening. And like oil, producers around the world are ramping up production, even as prices fall for the fifth year in a row! The strategy is similar to OPEC’s – the lowest-cost coal producers around the world are trying to drive the higher-cost producers out of business. Black Cloud Engulfing U.S. Coal Also as with oil, some of the thermal coal producers in the most trouble are right here in the United States. Thermal or steam coal accounts for over 90% of all domestic coal output. The CEO of *Alpha Natural Resources *(ANR <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ANR&ql=0>), Kevin Crutchfield, said the conditions facing the U.S. industry are “unprecedented.” In a similar vein, Greg Boyce, CEO of *Peabody Energy *(BTU <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BTU&ql=0>), the largest U.S. coal producer, said conditions were “challenging.” And these executives are not exaggerating… U.S. thermal coal prices are at six-year lows, and Appalachian coal recently hit $45.75 per ton, down from more than $56 a ton a year ago. That isn’t far from the $42.20 per ton price hit in the depths of the financial crisis in April 2009. The downturn in domestic demand for coal has been accelerated by the 44% drop in natural gas prices since June. This pushed many utilities, looking to save money, to switch from coal. Exports, which have been a strength the past few years, are also being affected by the aforementioned global glut in thermal coal. Plus, U.S. coal producers are being socked from an unexpected direction too. You see, financial pressure on Russia is forcing the value of the ruble done, which has turned Russia into a competitive low-cost coal producer. These unprecedented conditions can be clearly seen in the price actions of the U.S. coal company stocks. Collapsing Under the Weight In the past five years, Peabody has lost 87% of its value, Alpha 98%, and *Arch Coal *(ACI <http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ACI&ql=0>) 96%. And in the last six months, Peabody is down 59%, while both Alpha and Arch are both down 69%. The stocks have plunged because the financials aren’t pretty. For example, Peabody recently reported an after-tax loss of $787 million for 2014 and slashed its quarterly dividend by 97% to $0.0025 a share. And its operating cash flow of $337 million was less than its interest payment of $414 million, according to the *Financial Times*. Yes, the future for U.S. coal companies looks bleak as conditions continue to worsen, including regulatory pressure from the Obama administration. Unfortunately, exports will not be a salvation. China seems to be serious about cutting pollution coming from coal plants. In fact, many industry observers think we may soon reach peak coal demand in China. Imports of foreign coal into China fell by 11% last year to 292 million mt, says *Bloomberg*. And Chinese consumption of seaborne coal is expected to fall another 9% to 195 million mt this year. So what is the likely end result for U.S. coal producers? As Nomura analyst Curt Woodworth told the *Financial Times*, “I think you’re going to see multiple bankruptcies in U.S. coal over the next 12 to 18 months.” However, that does not mean all U.S. coal firms are headed for the dust bin of history. Peabody has seen some insider buying, and it has more higher-quality assets around the globe, including in Australia, than its peers. So at least it looks to be a survivor. And the chase continues, Tim Maverick Tim Maverick boasts decades of experience in the investment world. He spent 20 years at a major brokerage firm - as a trading supervisor and broker working directly with clients. *Learn More >> <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/author/tim-maverick/>* <https://www.facebook.com/WallStreetDaily> <https://twitter.com/TimMaverickWSD> <https://plus.google.com/104571546762047448905/posts> <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/02/04/sugar-bear-market/> <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/01/13/a-change-to-your-subscription/> <http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/01/14/copper-prices-deficit/> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "kfc-organizers" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to kfc-organizers+unsubscribe(a)googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to kfc-organizers(a)googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

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New generation capacity from renewables exceeds coal, oil and nukes combined in 2014
by James Kotcon 06 Feb '15

06 Feb '15

?It even beat out new capacity from natural gas! JBK http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/2188916/renewable-energy… [http://theenergycollective.com/sites/theenergycollective.com/files/renewabl…]<http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/2188916/renewable-energy…> New Energy Capacity Installation and Measurement | The Energy Collective It was a close race, but in the end new generating capacity from renewable sources beat out new natural gas capacity by 1.16% in 2014. Of the 49.81% of new capacity from renewable energy, more than one-quarter, or 26.52%, came from wind energy while solar power provided another 20.40% of the total. Read more...<http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/2188916/renewable-energy…>

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NYTimes.com: Investing in Energy Efficiency Pays Off
by William V. DePaulo, Esq. 06 Feb '15

06 Feb '15

OK, not exactly a bulletin, but useful information re what it takes to persuade owners to make investment. William V. DePaulo, Esq. Sent by william.depaulo(a)gmail.com: Investing in Energy Efficiency Pays Off <http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=InCMR7g4BCKC2wiZPkcVUo7tyCrVLZeR&use…> By David Bornstein Colleges are finding that refitting buildings with greener heating and ventilating systems can pay for itself in a few years. Or, copy and paste this URL into your browser: http://nyti.ms/1ELe1HQ <http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=InCMR7g4BCKC2wiZPkcVUo7tyCrVLZeR&use…> To get unlimited access to all New York Times articles, subscribe today. See Subscription Options. <http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACDuqzkg7rwCIjbQi…> To ensure delivery to your inbox, please add nytdirect(a)nytimes.com to your address book. Advertisement <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=secure.ny…> Copyright 2015 <http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KVBjmEgFdYACMlEhIhWVuPIxgan…> | The New York Times Company <http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=4z5Q7LhI+KUv6vqdu/zT/DtUzLlQEcSh&use…> | NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

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from ScienceDailye-newsletter: Biologists partner bacterium with nitrogen gas to produce more, cleaner bioethanol
by Paul Wilson 03 Feb '15

03 Feb '15

Biologists partner bacterium with nitrogen gas to produce more, cleaner bioethanol <http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment/~3/891…> Posted: 02 Feb 2015 06:21 PM PST Biologists believe they have found a faster, cheaper and cleaner way to increase bioethanol production by using nitrogen gas, the most abundant gas in Earth's atmosphere, in place of more costly industrial fertilizers. The discovery could save the industry millions of dollars and make cellulosic ethanol -- made from wood, grasses and inedible parts of plants -- more competitive with corn ethanol and gasoline. <http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment?a=891…> <http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment?a=891…> <http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment?a=891…> <http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment?a=891…> <http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/sciencedaily/top_news/top_environment?a=891…> -- Paul Wilson Sierra Club Military Outings Project Healing Waters Fly-fishing 504 Jefferson Ave Charles Town, WV 25414-1130 Phone: 304-725-4360 Cell: 304-279-1361 "There is no forward until you have gone back" ~Buddha "In all things of nature there is something of the marvelous" ~ Aristotle JUSTICE, ONLY JUSTICE, SHALT THOU PURSUE. Deuteronomy 16:20

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NYTimes: XL Pipeline needs crude oil at $65 to $75 to breake even; crude now at $50
by William V. DePaulo, Esq. 03 Feb '15

03 Feb '15

Energy & Environment <http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/energy-environment/index.html> FEB. 2, 2015 Lower Oil Prices Strike at Heart of Canada’s Oil Sands Production By IAN AUSTEN <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/ian_austen/ind…> OTTAWA — For as long as 400-ton dump trucks have been rumbling around the open pit mines of Canada <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/ca…>’s oil sands <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/o/oil_petroleu…>, crews from Kal Tire have been on hand to replace and repair their $70,000, 13-foot diameter tires. But the relationship, going back over a decade, didn’t spare the company when oil <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/oil-petroleu…> prices began plummeting. Dan Allan, the senior vice president of Kal’s mining tire unit, said that customers immediately began looking for price concessions. Others asked Kal to withdraw personnel from some sites or swiftly canceled plans to add more maintenance crews. “We’re sort of caught at the sharp end of the spear,” said Mr. Allan, who is now looking to relocate some employees. “It’s really difficult.” Canada’s oil sands <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/o/oil_petroleu…> — and the 167 billion barrels of reserves — prompted an unprecedented expansion over the last decade. But the roughly $155 billion spending spree left the industry with unusually high production costs. Now, oil sands operators are scrambling to limit the damage, as crude prices hover near seven-year lows <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/business/energy-environment/oil-prices.ht…> . Photo An oil sands operation near Fort McMurray, Alberta, last September. Production costs are high in the oil sands, and low oil prices are a threat to profitability. Credit Todd Korol/Reuters Suncor, the largest oil sands operator, announced plans to eliminate about 1,000 contract jobs. Shell Canada said it would cut its oil sands work force by about 10 percent. Cenovus Energy said that it would reduce investment spending by 27 percent, and set aside plans for two oil sands project expansions. A camp for workers in Northern Alberta, the heart of the oil sands, was permanently closed and another was temporarily shut. Several proposed oil sands projects and expansions are under review or have been deferred. The cuts, though, won’t necessarily translate into lower production. Oil sands production is expected to increase by 25 percent, to 4.8 million barrels a day, according to January estimates by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, partly because of new projects moving into production. The enormous projects are just too difficult to switch off, and the companies must keep pumping crude to cover the sizable debt on their multibillion-dollar investments. They also don’t want to cede market share to producers in other countries. Imperial Oil, which is controlled by Exxon Mobil, said on Monday that fourth-quarter earnings dropped by 36 percent. Even so, the company plans to start production at two new oil sands projects this year. “It really makes no economic sense to bring down production at this point because most of the costs are sunk,” said Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst with S&P Capital IQ Equity. While production may keep humming along, the big question is whether oil sands producers can break even at current prices. An oil sands project takes five to 10 years to design and build, and they have a life span of 25 to 50 years. Fort Hills, a project now under construction in a partnership led by Suncor, has a budget of 13.5 billion Canadian dollars (about $10.7 billion). Once such projects are up and running, the expenses are significant, given the process needed to get the oil <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/oil-petroleu…>-laden bitumen from the ground. It must either be dug up or blasted from under the ground using steam. Two energy-hungry steps are then needed to separate the bitumen from the sand and to turn it into usable oil known as synthetic crude. A frequently cited study <http://keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/221135.pdf> prepared for the United States State Department’s review of the Keystone XL <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/k/keystone_pip…> pipeline estimated that many oil sands projects become unprofitable at prices of $65 to $75 a barrel. Prices are now below $50. But the State Department review, which was released in January 2014, doesn’t necessarily account for the changing environment. Andrew Leach, an economist and professor of energy policy at the University of Alberta, said that the American figure inflated the break-even point by including a 12 percent profit margin for oil producers. The drop in the Canadian dollar has also provided an added cushion for domestic oil companies that are paid for their products in the now more valuable American currency. When those factors are combined, Mr. Leach said, “you’re looking at a reduction of the growth rate at current prices, a stall.” He estimates that the production cost for synthetic crude from the major open pit mine projects is $31 to $39 a barrel, at current exchange rates. He added, though, that a few projects with production problems had much higher costs. The industry thinking, he said, is, “I’m willing to burn through cash on this project because in the long term it will be worth it.” As a result, most oil sands operators are reviewing future projects rather than considering production cuts or stopping projects already under construction. They are also looking to cut costs as swiftly as possible. “Nobody in the oil industry feels very secure,” said Ken Smith, president of the Unifor union local that represents about 3,600 Suncor employees who operate the giant dump trucks and excavators. “We’re kind of at the mercy of these big players like the Saudis and Russia.” Mr. Smith said he believed that none of Suncor’s 1,000 layoffs would involve his members. Sneh Seetal, a spokeswoman for Suncor, said the company had yet to determine the specifics, but noted that it would involve a mix of contract positions and employees spread across the company’s domestic operations, which include refining and gasoline retailing. Companies in supporting roles — such as suppliers for safety boots and cleaning services — are feeling the most immediate squeeze. Photo A Suncor oil sands mining operation near Fort McMurray, Alberta. Such enormous projects are difficult to switch off. Credit Todd Korol/Reuters The Fort McMurray branch of Finning International, a Caterpillar dealer that sold many of the $5 million to $6 million heavy-haul dump trucks, recently laid off about 60 workers. At the end of December, Civeo <http://www.civeo.com>, which is based in Houston, said it was mothballing an oil sands work housing complex with 2,005 rooms and was permanently closing another with 510. Trevor Haynes, the president and chief executive of the Black Diamond Group <http://www.blackdiamondlimited.com/main/index>, another supplier of work housing based in Calgary, Alberta, said he was not yet being pressured to cut rates by oil companies and did not expect to have to close any of the housing in the oil sands. But that does not mean that he is sanguine. “It comes down to one word, which is ‘uncertainty,’ ” Mr. Haynes said. “Those of us who have been around awhile have seen these periods before, so it feels familiar, if vaguely disconcerting.” Continue reading the main story <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/business/energy-environment/lower-oil-pri…> Continue reading the main story <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/business/energy-environment/lower-oil-pri…> Continue reading the main story <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/business/energy-environment/lower-oil-pri…> His main concern is that new construction projects may be indefinitely postponed. If so, he plans to fill the void by supplying housing to proposed liquefied natural gas <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/natural-gas/…> plants in British Columbia as well as that province’s recently announced plan to build a major hydroelectric <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/h/hydroelectri…> dam. Not everyone is upset or worried about the slowdown in the oil sands. Melissa Blake, the mayor of the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray and most of the major oil sands sites, said she welcomed it. After trying to keep up with a population increase of more than 125 percent since 2000, Ms. Blake said, Fort McMurray needs a break. “The past few years have been just been catching up with the growth we’ve had,” the mayor said. “There’s a bit of an advantage from having a less robust industry.” A break, Ms. Blake, said should allow the community’s infrastructure to finally catch up with its growth. Ms. Blake said she had seen no obvious signs of a slowdown around town, like emptier stores and restaurants. But that, she said, is probably because most of the 79,000 full-time residents of Fort McMurray are in less vulnerable jobs. That’s probably not the case, she acknowledged, for about 39,000 people who fly in to work on oil sands projects but make their homes elsewhere, often on the other side of Canada. But Ms. Blake acknowledged that if the slump in prices proved to be sustained, few would escape its effects. “There’s going to have to be a real battening down of the hatches,” she said.

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EC February 2015