EC May 2016

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Fw: Synapse Looks at EIA's Early Release of its Annual Energy Outlook 2016
by James Kotcon 18 May '16

18 May '16

This is news you can use. According to this new analysis by US-DOE's Energy Information Agency, the EPA's Clean Power Plan is likely to be economically devastating to those who own fossil fuel reserves, but for consumers, the effect is relatively small. If trading of emissions allowances occurs, and costs are rebated to consumers, the actual consumer impact is near zero. The EIA has historically been very conservative in its forecasts, so much so that they have dramatically underestimated actual growth in renewables and assume essentially flat production, instead of the exponential increases reported by FERC. http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/us-eia-responds-cleantechnica-lettercri… This may be useful when coal advocates tell you that the CPP will bankrupt America. JBK ________________________________ From: Synapse Energy Economics <bcopes=synapse-energy.com(a)mail80.suw13.rsgsv.net> on behalf of Synapse Energy Economics <bcopes(a)synapse-energy.com> Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 4:31 PM To: James Kotcon Subject: Synapse Looks at EIA's Early Release of its Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser<http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e4672&id=f312ef3591…>. [http://gallery.mailchimp.com/bef0f8c2ef390a88c3e173e7c/images/Synapse_small…]<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> May 2016 All Publications<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> Contact Us<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> [https://gallery.mailchimp.com/80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e4672/images/35506952-12c…]<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b…> [https://gallery.mailchimp.com/80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e4672/images/fec3f9c4-1be…] <http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> ________________________________ EIA Publishes Early Release of Annual Energy Outlook 2016 On May 17, 2016, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published an early release of its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2016. This early release contains projections for two scenarios: a Reference case, which includes the effects of the Clean Power Plan, and a “No Clean Power Plan” case, which examines a future in which there is no Clean Power Plan. Final versions of each of these cases, along with projections for numerous other scenarios, will be available on July 7, 2016. Until then, here are some of the key highlights in the latest AEO: The AEO 2016 Reference case projects that the Clean Power Plan will raise electricity prices by just 3 percent compared to a future with no Clean Power Plan. As a result of the Clean Power Plan, EIA projects that average electricity prices in the years 2025 to 2030 will be 3 percent higher than a future with no Clean Power Plan. However, the AEO 2016 Reference case (inclusive of the Clean Power Plan) features electricity prices 3 percent below the electricity prices forecasted just last year in the AEO 2015 Reference case. Importantly, this 3 percent increase is limited just to electricity prices; EIA assumes that in the Clean Power Plan, electricity providers purchase CO2 allowances, the revenues of which are rebated to ratepayer bills (just as is currently done in Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative states<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…>). As a result, the full effect on out-of-pocket spending on electricity by ratepayers is lower than 3 percent, or even zero. The AEO 2016 Reference case models a 32 percent decrease in electric sector CO2 emissions in 2030 By following the mass-based approach to the Clean Power Plan, AEO 2016’s Reference case reduces electric sector CO2 emissions by over 30 percent by 2028 (compared to 2005 levels), and it sustains this reduction through 2040 (see Figure 1 below). This level of emissions is also nearly 30 percent lower than that projected in last year’s AEO 2015. Even in the No CPP case, CO2 emissions are significantly lower than both historical emissions (a reduction of 16 percent compared to 2005) and what was previously projected (a reduction of 11 percent compared to last year’s AEO 2015 Reference case). Figure 1. Electric power carbon dioxide emissions, historical and projected [https://gallery.mailchimp.com/80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e4672/images/7fe9e42f-436…] Read more<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> highlights on the Synapse blog. ________________________________ Newsletter Subscription You are receiving this newsletter because we think you will find the information interesting and relevant to your work. If for any reason you don't wish to receive these emails, you may unsubscribe by emailing marketing(a)synapse-energy.com.<mailto:marketing@synapse-energy.com> Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. 485 Massachusetts Ave., Suite 2 Cambridge, MA 02139 www.synapse-energy.com ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. All rights reserved. This email was sent to jkotcon(a)wvu.edu<mailto:jkotcon@wvu.edu> why did I get this?<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/about?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e4672…> unsubscribe from this list<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b6…> update subscription preferences<http://synapse-energy.us1.list-manage.com/profile?u=80ccfa970a5bcb075b62e46…> Synapse Energy Economics · 485 Massachusetts Ave · Suite 2 · Cambridge, MA 02139 · USA

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Renewables Are Leaving Natural Gas In The Dust This Year
by James Kotcon 17 May '16

17 May '16

In 2014 and 2015, Renewables were two-thirds of new generation. In the first quarter of 2016, it is in excess of 98 %. And that does not even count the residential solar, only facilities larger than 1 MW. JBK In the first three months of 2016, the U.S. grid added 18 megawatts of new natural gas generating capacity. It added a whopping 1,291 megawatts (MW) of new renewables. The renewables were primarily wind (707 MW) and solar (522 MW). We also added some biomass (33 MW) and hydropower (29 MW). The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) latest monthly "Energy Infrastructure Update<http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2016/mar-infrastructure.pdf>" reports that no new capacity of coal, oil, or nuclear power were added in the first quarter of the year. Full story is at: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/16/3778542/grid-70-times-renewable… Jim Kotcon

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Lobbying Continues Unabated on EPA's Clean Power Plan
by Duane 14 May '16

14 May '16

http://www.bna.com/lobbying-continues-unabated-n57982070620/ Lobbying Continues Unabated on EPA's Clean Power Plan By Anthony Adragna, Bloomberg BNA, May 3, 2016 Near-impossible odds of legislative success and upcoming oral arguments in federal appeals court haven't deterred entities from continuing aggressive lobbying of Congress on the Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. More than 130 entities reported lobbying on the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's domestic efforts on climate change during the first quarter of 2016, according to disclosures reviewed by Bloomberg BNA. That number is virtually unchanged from a year ago when efforts to stop the regulation were at a near-fever pitch in Congress. Lawmakers have previously passed legislation and resolutions of disapproval to overturn or block the regulation, but support was always well below the levels needed to override the stroke of Obama's veto pen. Despite that reality, many of the entities reported lobbying Congress on those same efforts during the first quarter of 2016. The continued lobbying doesn't surprise academics and other outside experts. “This is hardly surprising,” Lee Drutman, a senior fellow with New America, told Bloomberg BNA May 3. “The passage of legislation is just the first battle in the endless fight on almost every issue. There's always another venue, and another opportunity for lobbying, another chance to make your case. Especially when you have lots of paying corporate clients.” Diversity in Groups Represented As in previous reporting periods, the entities lobbying on the Clean Power Plan ranged from major public health organizations to large publicly traded companies to coal companies (139 ECR, 7/21/15). Among the companies lobbying on the centerpiece of the Obama administration's domestic efforts on climate change were Westrock Co., Alcoa Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Xcel Energy Inc., Occidental Petroleum Co. and Siemens AG. Public health and environmental advocates, including the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Heart Association and the Catholic Health Association of the United States, all disclosed lobbying on the Clean Power Plan. Southern Co., Vectren Corp., Duke Energy Co., Calpine Corp., NorthWestern Energy Corp. and Entergy Corp. are among the energy interests that also said they pushed Congress on the regulation. Entities Lobbying on Issue Entities lobbying on the issue were identified through a search of lobbying records with the keywords “Clean Power Plan,”“111(d),” the number of the resolution of disapproval passed by Congress ( S.J. Res. 24) and two pieces of legislation (H.R. 2042; S. 1324) that would impede or outright kill the EPA's regulatory efforts under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. After Obama vetoed both resolutions of disapproval Dec. 18, 2015, congressional aides and lawmakers said they were unlikely to try to override them. Oral arguments in a federal appeals court case challenging the regulation are slated for June 2 and possibly June 3 (West Virginia v. EPA, D.C. Cir., No. 15-1363, oral argument 6/2/16). Lobbying Interest Not Surprising Despite the shift away from Congress to the courts in the fight over the Clean Power Plan, observers said they were not surprised lobbying efforts continued. Congress remains influential in the debate surrounding the EPA rule, some said. “Whether or not litigation is the best strategy, Congress retains the ability to influence the process ... so it makes sense that industry lobbyists would continue to spend time talking to them,” Lisa Gilbert, director of Public Citizen's Congress Watch, told Bloomberg BNA. “I am slightly surprised that the amount of money spent would be exactly the same, but I’d imagine they are also spending comparable resources on every potential avenue that might influence the outcome.” Jennifer Victor, a professor of legislative politics at George Mason University, told Bloomberg BNA many of the groups lobbying on the EPA rule have the primary purpose of advocacy before Congress. Others are membership-based and may feel pressure to show they are doing something, she said. “Some pretty big shift in the political landscape would be necessary for them to curtail this kind of activity,” Victor said, such as a change in administration or the end of litigation on the Clean Power Plan. See also: www.FrackCheckWV.net

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from Other Words: King Coal is Headed to Prison
by Paul Wilson 04 May '16

04 May '16

1. King Coal Is Headed to Prison <http://act.ips-dc.org/site/R?i=uq1uValgMJ1yav7bPyNPiw> / Jim Hightower *Don Blankenship is the first murderous coal executive to get put behind bars.* -- Paul Wilson Project Healing Waters Fly-fishing Sierra Club Military Outdoors 504 Jefferson Ave Charles Town, WV 25414-1130 Cell: 304-279-1361 "There is no forward until you have gone back" ~Buddha "In all things of nature there is something of the marvelous" ~ Aristotle JUSTICE, ONLY JUSTICE, SHALT THOU PURSUE. Deuteronomy 16:20

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Fwd: [Coal Volunteers List] Mary Anne Hitt's latest: The untold Grassroots History of Iowa's Clean Energy Transformation
by James Kotcon 03 May '16

03 May '16

As we gear up to fight FirstEnergy's proposal to buy yet another coal-fired power plant (later this summer), it is helpful to hear what the Club has accomplished in Iowa. Why not West Virginia? Jim Kotcon The Untold Grassroots History of Iowa's Clean Energy Transformation <http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/28/1521207/-The-Untold-Grassroots-Hi…> Mark Kresowik will never forget Merle Bell, the Iowa farmer whose property near Waterloo, *which had been in his family for more than 100 years* <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhkPx0STmVo>, was to be the site of a proposed coal plant. “Merle wanted to see his kids and grandkids inherit their farm, but had been told that he had virtually no choice but to sell his property and watch the coal plant developers bulldoze his family’s legacy,” said Mark. “Instead, more than 500 of his friends, neighbors, and supporters banded together to protect their land and their lungs, and prevent the dirty project from ever moving forward.” When Mark was hired by the Sierra Club in 2006 as our first organizer in Iowa fighting the Bush-era new coal rush, 75 percent of Iowa’s electricity came from coal, and there were three more new coal plants on the drawing board, including the project slated for Merle’s farm. Fast forward to earlier this month, when Warren Buffett’s Iowa-based utility*MidAmerican announced* <http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2016/04/14/midamerica…> it will invest $3.6 billion in a 2,000-megawatt wind project that’s the largest economic development project in state history. It will bring the utility to 85 percent wind power by 2020, and it won’t raise electricity rates by one cent. What in the world just happened in Iowa? There’s an untold story here. It begins on that farm in Iowa. Mark had been hired to fight those proposed Iowa coal plants after one had already slipped through the cracks, and the news landed on the desks of Bruce Nilles and Verena Owen, the founders of the Beyond Coal Campaign, who were based in Illinois. It was 2002, and they were astonished to learn that not only had a giant new 800-megawatt coal plant been approved in Iowa – to be built by MidAmerican, no less – but not one single, solitary person or organization had even submitted a comment in opposition to the plant. And so with three more Iowa coal plants on the drawing board, part of a wave of 200 planned coal plants nationwide, they vowed to never again allow a proposed coal plant to be left unopposed. They started in Iowa by hiring a recent college grad, Mark, who had been inspired by a concerned legislator, then state representative Rob Hogg, to organize opposition to the proposed Waterloo coal plant. Mark proceeded to channel his boundless energy into logging thousands of miles and hours crisscrossing his home state, organizing opposition to all the remaining coal plants and supporting clean energy, working with partner organizations large and small. Ultimately, the allies defeated all three, including the plant proposed by Dynegy and LS Power adjacent to Merle’s farm. As Mark remembers it, “More than 300 people turned out to an obscure zoning hearing in Waterloo, dozens testified against coal and in favor of clean energy before the Iowa Utilities Board in Marshalltown, and state officials and electric companies hadn’t seen anything like it before. Merle, his neighbors Gail Mueller and the Shatzers, and advocates like Plains Justice’s Carrie La Seur completely turned the public tide against coal and toward wind and solar power for all Iowans.” All told, around the nation this movement stopped 184 proposed coal plants from being built. Blocking those new coal plants changed everything, in Iowa and nationwide. Specifically, it changed three things: 1) it opened up new market opportunities for renewable energy, 2) it pulled us back from the brink of a massive and irrevocable 50-year investment in our most carbon intensive fossil fuel that would have doomed our climate, and 3) it increased pressure on the remaining coal plants, which weren’t going to be replaced by new coal, and therefore faced investment decisions about whether to modernize or retire. Since then, our Beyond Coal network has grown to include over 100 organizations and thousands of leaders in 50 states. In Iowa, through litigation and grassroots advocacy we have secured the retirement of over 2,100 megawatts of existing coal at 35 coal boilers, including the nation’s *200th coal plant* <http://www.sierraclub.org/compass/2015/07/beyond-coal-milestone-coal-plant-…> to announce retirement, which happened last year. As part of that advocacy, we pushed hard to secure ambitious renewable energy commitments from the state’s utilities as well. In a federal court settlement with MidAmerican, they agreed to one of the state’s first solar projects – a new array at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. And that brings back us to MidAmerican’s recent announcement that it will generate 85 percent of its power from wind energy by 2020 – putting the utility on track to realize its vision of becoming a 100 percent renewable energy utility. As *Bruce Nilles put it* <http://content.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2016/04/warren-buffet-s-midame…>, “MidAmerican made clean energy history, and raised the bar for every other utility in the United States.” In just over a decade, MidAmerican’s generation of electricity has gone from 70 percent coal to 35 percent coal, and now they’re doubling down again. In Iowa, an astonishing 5,000 megawatts of renewable energy has been installed, clean energy is a bi-partisan issue, and it is entirely possible with a little more prodding that the state’s two utilities, MidAmerican and Alliant Energy, will cease burning coal entirely within the next decade. Here’s the best part – this is the kind of state-by-state transformation we’re working for and realizing all across the country. To be clear, this kind of progress is moving slower in other states, and with 300 coal plants still chugging along and coal country in need of support for an economic transition, we have plenty more work to do. But we’re making progress on the scale that matters. While market pressures, federal policy, and innovation all played a role in that transformation, grassroots advocacy was a critical factor that tipped the scales and made the difference, harnessing all those forces into a smart, sustained campaign that is changing the world. In Iowa there would have been no market opportunity for clean energy investment today if the state had built three additional coal plants a decade ago. Our nation’s climate leadership is built on this solid grassroots foundation, one that is not going to shift with the political winds. With one third of US coal plants announced to retire, renewable energy providing the majority of new power on the grid in 2015, and unlimited opportunity ahead, this clean energy transformation is not just our vision. We’re making it a reality. *Join us* <http://content.sierraclub.org/coal/victories>. ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Heather Moyer <heather.moyer(a)sierraclub.org> Date: Thu, Apr 28, 2016 at 4:47 PM Subject: [Coal Volunteers List] Mary Anne Hitt's latest: The untold Grassroots History of Iowa's Clean Energy Transformation To: #Coal <coal-list(a)sierraclub.org>, #Media <media-list(a)sierraclub.org>, #Coal-Volunteers <coal-volunteers-list(a)sierraclub.org> Hi folks, Mary Anne Hitt's latest is about the road from coal to clean energy in Iowa - please share it far and wide! *Retweet:* https://twitter.com/sierraclub/status/725782930430251009 *Possible tweet:* The Untold Grassroots History of Iowa's Clean Energy Transformation: bit.ly/1NXNS9F <https://t.co/4RC0VLDkW5> (by @beyondcoal's @maryannehitt) *LINKS* *Compass:* http://bit.ly/1NXNS9F *DailyKos:* http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/28/1521207/-The-Untold-Grassroots-Hi… *Huffington Post:* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mary-anne-hitt/the-untold-grassroots-his_b_97… -------- *Social media question or request? Please email social-list(a)sierraclub.org <social-list(a)sierraclub.org>* *Heather Moyer* Senior Content Producer 202-675-6276 Sierra Club 50 F Street, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20001 -- To access the Beyond Coal Campaign Resource Portal, go to: https://sites.google.com/a/sierraclub.org/beyond-coal-resource-portal/ To sign up for this list, email neha.mathew(a)sierraclub.org with the subject and message "SUBSCRIBE #coal-volunteer" --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "#Coal-Volunteers" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to coal-volunteers-list+unsubscribe(a)sierraclub.org. To post to this group, send email to coal-volunteers-list(a)sierraclub.org.

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EC May 2016