This is pretty significant news. The data may seem boring, but I suspect that it would be quite relevant to our case on TrAILCo. These data do not assume a carbon cap and trade program, but even with just the recently passed H.R.6, “Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007” signed by President Bush in December 2007, the reduction in the electric demand growth rate is tremendous. I recommend clicking on the link and spend some time with the numbers.
JBK
"dave saville" daves@labyrinth.net 3/15/2008 3:30 AM >>>
No New Coal Plants! (nonewcoalplants@energyjustice.net)
On March 4, without fanfare, a bureaucrat named Guy Caruso caused 132 coal plants to disappear with a wave of his magic wand. Actually, he used a spreadsheet, but the effect was the same.
Caruso is the head of the Energy Information Administration, the division of the U.S. Department of Energy that, well, comes up with information on energy. Sort of like the CIA, but less glamorous.
A year ago, the EIA projected that electricity use would grow at the rate of 1.5 percent per year through 2030. But on March 4, Caroso told Congress that the EIA had revised its projected growth rate downward to 1.1 percent.
As we all learned in algebra, a small change in a percentage rate can make a big difference over time. Applied to coal, the new growth rate caused projected electricity generation from coal in 2030 to drop from 3191 Billion kilowatt hours (Bkwh) to 2756 Bkwh, a decrease of 435 Bkwh.
What does 435 Bkwh equate to in terms of coal plants? Assuming a 75% capacity factor (the percentage of hours in an average year that a plant is running full-bore), that's the output of 66,200 Megawatts of generating capacity, or 132 new coal plants (500 MW each) that won't have to be built afterall between now and 2030.
Of course, a lot of people already knew this was going on, including Wall Street. For years, the Energy Information Administration, which should be leading the way in guiding decision makers, has been out of step with reality. It tends to play the role of cheerleader for an industry that has always wanted to build, build, build.
But at some point reality intrudes -- the cheerleader turns around and actually looks at the game.
And that's why 1.5% just became 1.1%, and 132 coal plants suddenly went poof.
Here is Caruso's March 4th testimony to the U.S. Senate: http://www.nreca.org/Documents/PublicPolicy/caruso030408.pdfhttp://www.nre
ca.org/Documents/PublicPolicy/caruso030408.pdf
Here is last year's projection -- see Table A8 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/pdf/appendixes.pdfhttp://www.eia
.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/pdf/appendixes.pdf
Here is the latest projection -- again, see Table A8 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ae
o/pdf/appa.pdf