# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails (A to Z): Now
F!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/06/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
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(new) Dolls Run Well Pad for Drilling & Fracking in Monongalia County, WV
(click on photo to expand)
**OMG! Opening Public Lands to Drilling & Fracking Without Restraint!**
>>> _Technical Article on[Fracking by Randi
Pokladnik](https://ohvec.org/author/randi/), Submitted January 1, 2023_
**The Republican dominated Ohio Senate and House recently passed the Amended
HB 507 bill. It now awaits a signature from Gov. DeWine who can veto the bill
or allow it to go into law after a ten-day period. The bill was originally
intended to address poultry sales and food safety, however, at the last minute
an amendment, (134-3853) was added to HB 507 in the Senate. Basically, the
amendment will force state agencies to open their land to oil and gas drilling
with no exceptions. The amendment creates an atmosphere where citizens are
basically locked out of any public review process and refused the ability to
make comments on the leasing process. It by-passes any considerations of
impacts to the environment and recreation.**
Pre-19th century, Ohio was 95 percent forested. Today only 30 percent of
forested land remains (8.0 million acres) and only 11 percent is owned by
state and local governments. The Ohio State Park system encompasses about
170,000 acres of land and over 31 million visitors come to Ohio parks each
year.
For many people, both in and out of the state, state parks and forests remain
a sanctuary; a place for them to escape their hectic lives and find the peace
that nature offers. It also provides a space for recreating, bird watching,
fishing, hunting, hiking, canoeing and biking. Additionally, a study by The
Ohio State University determined that outdoor recreationalists’ trips bring in
$8.1 billion to Ohio’s economy and the sector employs 133,000 workers.
**Fracking and all the build-out that this industry requires will dramatically
change the landscape of Ohio’s parks and forests.** Who wants to hike through
a park with frack pads and fracking infrastructure? Who wants to ingest wild
game and fish taken from areas where fracking is occurring?
**Since 2005, and the passage of the Energy Policy Act, also known as the
Haliburton Loophole, fracking remains virtually unregulated. Who will
guarantee that every stage of the process will be conducted in a way so as not
to disrupt the state lands that supposedly belong to Ohio’s citizens?**
**A[study in West
Virginia](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06022011/natural-gas-drilling-
fells-1000-trees-w-va-forest-scientists-say/) showed forest ecosystems are
negatively affected by forest clearing, erosion, and road building during
fracking.** Vegetation death was also noted after frack fluids were sprayed on
the surrounding trees. [Peer reviewed studies show that watersheds surrounding
frack well pads test positive for the radioactive substances found in frack
waste water, which consists of fracturing fluid and salts, heavy metals,
hydrocarbons, and radioactive material accumulated from natural underground
sources.](https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/13032…
**[Fracking well pads and infrastructure will require clearing areas (cutting
trees and
vegetation).](https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/1…)
This will require areas of anywhere from four to twenty-five acres.** Not only
will this fragment the forest it will cause other effects that to date are
still not clearly understood or studied. [This includes additional
fragmentation that could affect plant
reproduction](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16913941/). Fracking can also
introduce and encourage the [spread of invasive
species](https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/shale-gas-development-promote…
spread-of-invasive-plant-species/article/498352) via the gravel delivered to
build pads and roads, and in mud on the tires and undercarriages of trucks
traveling those roads.
Traffic in the region will increase tremendously, becoming a maintenance
burden on roads, and also a hazard to local citizens and visitors. [Each well
drilled requires approximately 592 one-way
trips](https://studylib.net/doc/7349071/known-and-potential-impacts), with a
truck that carries between 80-100,000 lbs. The traffic from the development of
one well is equivalent to 3.4 million car trips.
**The process of high-pressure hydraulic fracking necessitates the use of 4-6
million gallons of water per well. This surface water will no doubt be
withdrawn from the local streams, resulting in harm to aquatic
organisms.[Fracking fluids contain chemical additives, e.g. friction reducers,
biocides and surfactants, many of which are known carcinogens and endocrine
disruptors.](https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1409535) Very little is
known about the potential effects of the chemicals, metals, organics or other
contaminants once they enter terrestrial or aquatic food webs.**
**Climate change, the elephant in the room, is being exacerbated by our
reliance on fossil fuels.** [Fracking operations release fugitive methane
emissions and are much higher than the industry reports. Methane gas is about
86 times as potent as carbon dioxide in magnifying heat related to climate
change.](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/fracking-bo…
tied-to-methane-spike-in-earths-atmosphere) The aesthetic beauty as well as
biodiversity of the forest will be impacted by allowing fossil fuel companies
to frack the landscape.
Once again, Ohio’s politicians place the interests of the oil and gas industry
ahead of Ohio’s citizens. In a word, “fracking”!
>>> Randi Pokladnik is a Scientist residing at Tappan Lake, Uhrichsville, Ohio
44683. She was born and raised in Ohio. She earned an associate degree in
Environmental Engineering, a BA in Chemistry, MA and PhD in Environmental
Studies. She is certified in hazardous materials regulations and holds a
teaching license in science and math.
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/06/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-a-to-z-now-f/>
# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails (A to Z): Now
E!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/05/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
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Since 2016, the U. S. has added over 35,000 MW of off-shore wind turbine
capacity
**Electrify Everything ~ Let’s try again, this time with feeling**
.
[Article by Elizabeth Kolbert, New Yorker
Magazine](https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/elizabeth-kolbert), November
28, 2022
**BIWF2 is a wind turbine that sticks up out of the Atlantic Ocean** , about
fifteen miles off the coast of Rhode Island. **It’s six hundred feet tall,
which is higher than the Washington Monument, and its blades are more than two
hundred feet long.** I’m on a boat designed to transport crews to offshore
wind farms. The captain maneuvers right up to the metal stanchions that hold
the turbine in place, so the blades are rotating directly overhead. They make
a fantastic whooshing sound that builds and fades, builds and fades. The
effect is at once thrilling and terrifying, as if some gigantic bird were
trying to land on the deck. “Ah,” everyone on board exclaims as another blade
descends.
**BIWF2 has one neighbor half a nautical mile to the north and three more
neighbors to the south. Together the turbines make up Block Island Wind Farm,
America’s first offshore wind operation. A dozen more wind projects are
currently planned off the East Coast, from Massachusetts to North Carolina.**
The turbines that will be erected in these projects will make BIWF2 look puny.
Staring up at the blades, I am looking into the future — or at least a future
—and it’s inspiring. BIWF2 is a symbol of what can be accomplished when people
put their minds to it.
In 1992, the year of the Earth Summit, the world had exactly one offshore wind
farm, called Vindeby. Situated off the Danish island of Lolland, it consisted
of eleven turbines, which, collectively, produced less power than BIWF2 does
today. Now there are scores of offshore farms, most of them in European and
Chinese waters. The largest, known as Hornsea 2, is in the North Sea, off the
English coast; it comprises a hundred and sixty-five turbines, each so massive
that a single sweep of its blades can power a household for a day.
Block Island Wind Farm and Hornsea 2 are owned by the same company, which used
to be known as Danish Oil and Natural Gas, or dong, but recently— and for
obvious reasons — changed its name, to Ørsted. (It also owned Vindeby, which
was decommissioned in 2017.) **As more turbines have gone up, costs have
plunged; just in the past decade, the price of offshore wind energy has
declined by half.**
**Onshore wind has grown even faster, and its cost, too, has plummeted. In
many parts of the world, it’s now cheaper to put up turbines than it is to
operate an existing power plant that burns natural gas. In places with a lot
of wind, such as Denmark, Ireland, and western Oklahoma, there’s sometimes so
much power pouring into the grid that producers have to pay to get rid of
it.**
**The price of solar power, meanwhile, has declined even more spectacularly.
Since 2010, it’s dropped by more than eighty per cent. According to the
International Energy Agency, solar power now offers “some of the lowest-cost
electricity ever seen.”**
The rapidly falling price of renewables makes it possible to imagine a not too
distant future in which the U.S., indeed the world, generates all its
electricity emissions-free. Already there are brief periods — on the order of
minutes —when California can produce enough electricity from renewables to
meet its demand. In Denmark, this happens for entire windy days. (It occurred
two days in a row this past May.)
**And, once it’s possible to imagine a carbon-free grid, all sorts of other
opportunities open up. Substitute electric motors for internal-combustion
engines and cars, too, can run emissions-free. The same goes for trucks and
buses, ferries and forklifts. Plug them in! Tear out boilers and replace them
with heat pumps! Swap gas ranges for induction stoves! Electrify as much as
possible. _Ideally, electrify everything._** e!
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/05/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-a-to-z-now-e/>
# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails (A to Z): Now
D!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/04/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
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Polar vortex brings despair to most of the continental United States
**“D” for Despair ~ The Climate Change “Despair” in Winter Storm Elliott**
Technical Article by Randi Pokladnik, Submitted January 1, 2023
**Some will use the recent cold weather event to claim climate change is not
real and the planet isn’t warming. But, when one looks at the actual science
behind these “Arctic bomb cyclones” and the record-breaking Winter Storm
Elliott, it is obvious that climate change has played a significant role.**
This Christmas 2022, many of us might have felt like we were enacting the 2004
movie “ **The Day After Tomorrow** ”. The movie is loosely based on a theory
called “ **abrupt climate change** ”. [The ocean’s thermohaline conveyor
normally circulates ocean water around the
planet.](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA469325.pdf) Cold, salty ocean water
sinks and pulls warmer fresh surface water in to replace the sinking water.
This sets up a deep-sea current that circulates water round the planet. If the
belt shuts down, the northern hemisphere abruptly cools while the southern
hemisphere warms.
[Paleoclimate records from Greenland ice cores show that the conveyor belt
shut down near the end of the last ice
age.](https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/207427) The ocean circulation stops
when higher water temperatures and the addition of more freshwater cause the
salinity and density of seawater to drop. A warming planet and melting
freshwater could trigger another shut-down of the belt, throwing North America
and Europe into frigid cold temperatures for hundreds of years.
While most scientists agree that what happened in the movie (overnight change)
will never occur, USA citizens witnessed some dramatic weather changes in
matter of hours. Denver, Colorado experienced a temperature drop of 70 degrees
in an 18-hour period. Winter Storm Elliott affected over two-thirds of our
population and almost every state except the South Western area. There were
record setting winds and cold temperatures in our region, blizzard conditions
in the plain states and feet of snow in the New England area; even Florida
broke some records for cold temperatures. Meteorologists say this storm will
be a once in a generation storm.
**So what caused Winter Storm Elliott?** The [northern polar
vortex](https://www.ecowatch.com/polar-vortex-explained-2650399482.html)
played a major role in the crushing cold that blanketed the North American
continent. There are two polar vortices on our planet, one which spins around
the North Pole and the other spins around the South Pole. [We are dealing with
the northern vortex which was first described in an article published in
1853.](https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Living_Age.html?hl=de&id=Df…
Normally, low-pressure cold air circulates counterclockwise and inward towards
the North Pole. The polar jet stream (high-altitude high-speed wind currents)
helps hold the vortex in place, much like an old-fashioned girdle held our
bulges in place. However, a weakened polar jet stream causes tiny breaks in
the “girdle” and allows the cold vortex to seep out of its circular orbit
dipping southward. It is like someone opening the refrigerator door and the
cold air seeps through your house.
[It is thought that climate change is causing a destabilization of the polar
jet stream](https://www.ecowatch.com/winter-storm-elliott-climate-
crisis.html). Scientists say that the Arctic region is warming faster than any
other area on the globe, on average four times faster in the past forty years.
As the polar air warms, the temperature differences between that air and mid-
latitude air lessens. This causes a “wobble” in the jet stream, or weakening
of the “girdle”, allowing the cold air to advance south.
**This year’s[2022 Arctic Report Card](https://www.noaa.gov/news-
release/human-caused-climate-change-fuels-warmer-wetter-stormier-arctic),
authored by 147 experts from 11 nations, tells the disturbing story of the
effects of climate change on the Arctic. Some of the changes include:
shrinking sea ice, warming atmospheric temperatures, and shorter periods of
snow cover. These could all play a role in more frequent polar air intrusions
into our region.**
So far at least fifty deaths have been attributed to the storm, with at least
twenty-seven in New York State. More than 8,305 flights were cancelled and
millions of people spent Christmas day without power. The economic impact
“will likely be in the billions.”
Scientists have been warning us that the time frame for mitigating climate
change is quickly closing. [The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said
in their 2022 report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/), “The dangers of
climate change are mounting so rapidly that they could soon overwhelm the
ability of both nature and humanity to adapt, creating a harrowing future in
which floods, fires and famine displace millions, species disappear and the
planet is irreversibly damaged.”
**Winter Storm Elliott proved to be an example of how we humans cannot
successfully adapt to abrupt changes in our weather, even though we have
access to advance technology. As climate changes occur more often and at a
faster rate, we find that adapting to these changes will become that much
harder and more expensive. Even more alarming is the fact that many of the
species we share the planet with will not be able to adapt but will instead
succumb to extinction.**
>>> Randi Pokladnik is a Scientist residing at Tappan Lake, Uhrichsville, Ohio
44683. She was born and raised in Ohio. She earned an associate degree in
Environmental Engineering, a BA in Chemistry, MA and PhD in Environmental
Studies. She is certified in hazardous materials regulations and holds a
teaching license in science and math.
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/04/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-a-to-z-now-d/>
# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails (A to Z): Now
C!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/03/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
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Rational analysis favors a “carbon tax” called a “dividend”
**“C” for Capitalism & Climate Change**
[Article by Elizabeth Kolbert, New Yorker
Magazine](https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/elizabeth-kolbert), November
28, 2022
**What’s the matter here? Why has so little progress been made on climate
change, even as the dangers have become ever more apparent?**
According to one school of thought, the problem has to do with incentives.
There’s a great deal of money to be made selling fossil fuels — just in the
first quarter of 2022, twenty-five of the world’s largest oil-and-gas
producers announced profits of close to a hundred billion dollars — and still
more money to be made by burning fossil fuels to make stuff to sell, from
sunglasses to steel girders.
**Meanwhile, the costs of climate change can be fobbed off on someone else. To
use the technical term, they are a “negative externality.” In the words of the
Stern Review, a report commissioned by the British government in 2005, climate
change “is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.”**
**By this account, the obvious solution is to realign the incentives — to
internalize the externalities. If the cost of the damage caused by a ton of
CO2 was borne by the business (or individual) responsible for emitting that
ton, then the business (or individual) would be motivated to cut back.**
**“A carbon tax offers the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon
emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary,” a 2019 statement signed
by thirty-five hundred economists, including twenty-eight Nobel Prize winners,
declared. Such a tax would move “the invisible hand of the marketplace to
steer economic actors towards a low-carbon future.”**
**According to a second school of thought, the trouble runs a whole lot
deeper. Our political system is dominated by corporate money in general and
fossil-fuel money in particular.** (Last year, the oil-and-gas industry
reportedly spent a hundred and twenty million dollars lobbying Washington, and
it probably spent a great deal more via front groups.)
**It’s therefore naïve to imagine that policies that cut into fossil-fuel
profits will be enacted. And even if they were, they wouldn’t solve the
essential problem, which is that the “invisible hand” always grasps for
more.** If it’s not more oil, it will be more lithium to build batteries, and
if it’s not more lithium it will be more cobalt, mined from the bottom of the
sea.
**“When it comes to global warming, we know that the real problem is not just
fossil fuels — it is the logic of endless growth that is built into our
economic system,” Jason Hickel, an economic anthropologist at the Autonomous
University of Barcelona, has written.**
**[Climate change can’t be dealt with using the tools of
capitalism](https://youtu.be/Jdaxehd0cF0), because it is a product of
capitalism. It can be dealt with only by throwing off capitalism in favor of
something else — a system aimed not at growth but at “degrowth.”**
“The difficult truth is that, to prevent climate and ecological catastrophe,
we need to level down” is how the British environmental writer George Monbiot
recently put it.
**A third line of thought — perhaps too bleak and unpopular to be called a
school — is that, if big change is hard, bigger change is even harder. How are
we going to build a whole new economic system if we can’t even enact a carbon
tax?**
#######+++++++#######+++++++#######
**See Also:** [Naomi Klein - This Changes
Everything](https://youtu.be/Jdaxehd0cF0), Bioneers, November 5, 2014
Climate change as more than an “issue.” It’s a civilizational wake-up call
delivered in the language of fires, floods, storms and droughts. It demands
that we challenge the dominant economic policies of deregulated capitalism and
endless resource extraction. Climate change is also the most powerful weapon
in the fight for equality and social justice, and real solutions are emerging
from the rubble of our failing systems.
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/03/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-a-to-z-now-c/>
# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails (A to Z): Now
B!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/02/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
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Greta Thunberg brings much needed logic and truth to bear overall!
**Greta Thunberg Says Most Climate Talk is “Blah, Blah, Blah”**
[Article by Elizabeth Kolbert, New Yorker
Magazine](https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/elizabeth-kolbert), November
28, 2022
**On September 28, 2021, at the Youth4Climate conference, held in Milan, Greta
Thunberg took the stage. Sitting near her was the city’s mayor, Giuseppe Sala,
wearing a mask. Thunberg, who is five feet tall, could barely be seen over the
lectern. She had removed her mask and was smiling.**
**“Climate change is not only a threat, it is above all an opportunity to
create a healthier, greener, and cleaner planet which will bene!t all of us,”
she began. “We must seize this opportunity—we can achieve a win-win in both
ecological conservation and high-quality development. . . . We need to walk
the talk; if we do this together, we can do this.
“When I say ‘climate change,’ what do you think of ?” she went on. “I think of
jobs — green jobs.” This received a round of applause.
“We must find a smooth transition towards a low-carbon economy,” Thunberg
said. “There is no Planet B. There is no Planet Blah—blah, blah, blah; blah,
blah, blah.” Her listeners, including Sala, started to realize that they’d
been had. The applause died down.
“Build Back Better—blah, blah, blah,” Thunberg continued. “Green economy—blah,
blah, blah. “Net zero by 2050—blah, blah, blah.
“Net zero—blah, blah, blah. “Climate neutral—blah, blah, blah.**
**“This is all we hear from our so-called leaders: words — words that sound
great, but so far have led to no action,” Thunberg said. “Of course we need
constructive dialogue, but they’ve now had thirty years of blah, blah, blah,
and where has that led us?”**
**Five countries are responsible for over half of all historical CO2
emissions, namely United States, China, Russia, Germany and the United
Kingdom. About a hundred and ninety countries are responsible for the other
half.**
**It was thirty years ago that the world’s “so-called leaders” gathered in Rio
de Janeiro for the so-called Earth Summit.** Everyone agreed that radical
change was needed. To avert disaster, global CO2 emissions, which were then
running at around twenty-two billion metric tons a year, would have to be
reduced, eventually almost to zero. How this would happen, no one really knew.
**Still, the goal of preventing “dangerous” warming was enshrined in the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which President George
H. W. Bush cheerfully signed.** “Some find the challenges ahead overwhelming,”
Bush said. “I believe that their pessimism is unfounded.”
**A follow-up “conference of the parties,” or COP, took place in Kyoto in
1997.** By then, annual global emissions had risen to twenty-four billion
tons. After much back-and-forth, it was agreed that something had to be done.
**This Kyoto Protocol, an addendum to the Framework Convention, laid out
specific emissions-reduction targets for countries to meet.**
**“I am both determined and optimistic that we can succeed,” Vice President Al
Gore told the diplomats gathered in Japan.**
**After Kyoto, global emissions kept on rising, only faster. By 2009, they’d
climbed to thirty-two billion tons a year. That fall, President Barack Obama
"flew to Copenhagen for yet another conference of the parties — COP-15. “I
believe that we can act boldly, and decisively, in the face of this common
threat,” he declared.**
**By 2015, emissions had increased to thirty-five billion tons a year. At that
year’s COP No. 21 — held in Paris, it was decided that, at last, really and
truly, it was time to get serious.** “The decisions you make here will
reverberate down through the ages,” the United Nations Secretary-General, Ban
Ki-moon, told the delegates. Nevertheless, emissions continued to rise. **In
the past thirty years, humans have added as much CO2 to the atmosphere as they
did in the previous thirty thousand.**
**At some point during all the “blah, blah, blah”-ing — it’s hard to say when,
exactly — climate change ceased to be a prospective problem and became a clear
and present one. Since Rio, the Arctic ice cap has shrunk by two-fifths.
Greenland has shed some four trillion metric tons of ice, and mountain
glaciers have lost six trillion tons. Heat waves are now hotter, droughts
deeper, and storms more intense. In some parts of the world, the wildfire
season never ends.**
**One conclusion to draw from this pattern is that the world isn’t going to
avoid “dangerous” warming. Global leaders will continue to gather at COPs —
this year’s, in Sharm el-Sheikh, just concluded — and to speak loftily about
“net zero” and “a low-carbon economy.” But nothing will change, and, as a
result, everything will change. There will be large-scale crop failures. The
Greenland ice sheet will start to collapse — it may already be collapsing —
and, owing to sea-level rise in some places and desertifcation in others,
large swaths of the globe will become uninhabitable.**
**This conclusion is not, however, the one that Thunberg chose to draw when
she spoke at the Youth4Climate conference. “Right now we are still very much
speeding in the wrong direction,” she told the crowd in Milan. “But, of
course, we can still turn this around — it is entirely possible.**
**“The leaders like to say, ‘We can do this,’ ” Greta went on. “They obviously
don’t mean it, but we do — we can do this. I’m absolutely convinced that we
can.” Or, as Thunberg herself might put it, Blah, blah, blah.**
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/02/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-a-to-z-now-b/>
# [Climate Change Resists Narrative, Yet the Alphabet Prevails … A to
Z!](https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/01/climate-change-resists-narrativ…
yet-the-alphabet-prevails-%e2%80%a6-a-to-z/)
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Svante August Arrhenius, Swedish (1859 – 1927), foresaw climate change.
**“A is for Arrhenius”**
.
[Article by Elizabeth Kolbert, New Yorker
Magazine](https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/elizabeth-kolbert), November
28, 2022
Svante Arrhenius was, by nature, an optimist. He believed that science should
— and could — be accessible to all. In 1891, he got his !rst teaching job, at
an experimental university in Stockholm called the Högskola. That same year,
he founded the Stockholm Physics Society, which met every other Saturday
evening. For a fee of one Swedish crown, anyone could join. Among the
society’s earliest members was a Högskola student named Sofia Rudbeck, who was
described by a contemporary as both “an excellent chemist” and “a ravishing
beauty.” Arrhenius began writing her poetry, and soon the two wed.
Physics Society meetings consisted of lectures on the latest scientific
developments, many delivered by Arrhenius himself, followed by discussions
that often lasted well into the night. The topics ranged widely, from
aeronautics to volcanology. The society devoted several sessions to
considering the instruments that would be needed by Salomon August Andrée,
another early member of the group, who had decided to try to reach the North
Pole via balloon. (Whatever the quality of his instruments, Andrée’s voyage
would result in his death and the death of his two companions.)
A question that particularly interested the Physics Society was the origin of
the ice ages. All over Sweden lay signs of the glaciers that had, for vast
stretches of time, buried the country: rocks with parallel scrapings; strange,
sinuous piles of gravel; huge boulders that had been transported far from
their source. But what had caused the great ice sheets to descend, carrying
all before them? And then what had caused them to retreat, allowing the rivers
to "ow once again and the forests to return? In 1893, the society debated
various theories that had been proposed, including one linking the ice ages to
slight variations in the Earth’s orbit. The following year, Arrhenius came up
with a different—and, he thought, better—idea: carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide, he knew, had curious heat-trapping properties. In the
atmosphere, it allowed visible light to pass through, but it absorbed the
longer-wave radiation that the Earth was constantly emitting to space. What
if, Arrhenius speculated, the amount of CO2 in the air had varied? Could that
explain the glaciers’ ebb and flow?
The math involved in testing this theory went far beyond what was possible at
the time. Arrhenius didn’t have a calculator, let alone a computer. He lacked
crucial information about which wavelengths, exactly, CO2 absorbs. The climate
system, meanwhile, is immensely complicated, with feedback loops nestled
within feedback loops.
Arrhenius, who would later win a Nobel Prize for an unrelated discovery,
plunged ahead anyway. On Christmas Eve, 1894, he began constructing a climate
model — the world’s first. He assembled temperature data from around the globe
and made ingenious use of a set of measurements that had been taken a decade
earlier by an American astronomer, Samuel Pierpont Langley. (Langley had
invented a device — a bolometer — for gauging infrared radiation, and had used
it to determine the temperature of the moon.) Arrhenius performed thousands of
computations —perhaps tens of thousands — and often labored over this task for
fourteen hours a day.
He was still calculating away as his marriage fell apart. In September of
1895, Rudbeck moved out. In November, without having seen Arrhenius again, she
gave birth to their son. The following month, Arrhenius finished his work. “I
should certainly not have undertaken these tedious calculations if an
extraordinary interest had not been connected with them,” he wrote.
Arrhenius believed that he had unravelled the mystery of the ice ages, a
riddle that had “hitherto proved most difficult to interpret.” He was at least
partly right: ice ages are the product of a complex interplay of forces,
including wobbles in the Earth’s orbit and changes in atmospheric CO2.
His model turned out to have another use as well. All across Europe and North
America, coal was being shovelled into furnaces that were bellowing out carbon
dioxide. By thickening the atmospheric blanket that warmed the Earth, humans
must, Arrhenius reasoned, be altering the climate. He calculated that, if the
amount of carbon dioxide in the air were to double, then global temperatures
would rise between three and four degrees Celsius. A few quadrillion
computations later, vastly more advanced climate models predict that doubling
CO2 will push temperatures up between 2.5 and four degrees Celsius, meaning
that Arrhenius’s pen-and-paper estimate was, to an uncanny degree, on target.
Arrhenius thought that the future he had conjured would be delightful. “Our
descendants,” he predicted, would live happier lives “under a warmer sky.” The
prospect was, in any event, distant; doubling atmospheric CO2 would, he
reckoned, take humanity three thousand years.
It’s easy now to poke fun at Arrhenius for his sunniness. The doubling
threshold could be reached within decades, and the results are apt to be
disastrous. But who among us is any different? Here we all are, watching
things fall apart. And yet, deep down, we don’t believe it.
URL: <https://www.frackcheckwv.net/2023/01/01/climate-change-resists-
narrative-yet-the-alphabet-prevails-%e2%80%a6-a-to-z/>