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Study says Pittsburgh to be one hot town
Fossil fuels seen to cause soaring temperatures here
Friday, October 06, 2006
By Don Hopey, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
"Hot enough for you?" It's a common, sweltering, summertime query on the
streets of Pittsburgh, but no matter what your response, you ain't seen
nothing yet.
By the end of this century, summers in Pittsburgh could resemble those in Georgia or Alabama if we continue the unabated burning of fossil fuels -- coal, oil and natural gas, according to a new two-year study of climate change projections in the northeastern United States.
 James Hilston, Post-Gazette A new two-year study of climate change projections in the northeastern United States. |
The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment report released Wednesday says Pittsburgh, which annually averages nine days above 90 degrees and one day above 100 degrees now, could, by 2100, see 66 days above 90 degrees and 24 days above 100 degrees.
Even if we begin to substantially reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases today, Pittsburgh's summer in 2100 will still warm up to resemble the temperatures now found in Kentucky and Virginia. That means the city will experience 30 days above 90 degrees and six days above 100 degrees.
Such extreme heat can be problematic in urban areas, where it is amplified by the heat island effect and can create dangerous, unhealthy conditions for the elderly, children and other vulnerable populations.
"The very notion of the Northeast as we know it is at stake," said Cameron Wake, co-lead author of the report and research associate professor at the University of New Hampshire's Climate Change Research Center. "The near-term choices we make in the Northeast and around the world will help determine the climate and quality of life our children and grandchildren experience."
The assessment of how global warming may further affect the climate of Pittsburgh, and other areas in the northeastern United States, uses projections from three sophisticated, independently run climate change models. Each model compared what would happen if higher emissions of heat-trapping gases -- primarily carbon dioxide -- continued, to an alternate scenario in which emissions were substantially reduced.
In both scenarios, the Northeast will experience significantly higher temperatures through the century's midpoint.
But if immediate action is taken to cut emissions by 3 percent annually using existing, proven technologies, heat-trapping emissions would peak by mid-century and then decline, significantly reducing peak temperatures by the turn of the century.
Taking the present, higher emissions path, winters here could warm by 8 to 12 degrees and summers by 6 to 14 degrees. Projections on the lower emissions path show increases of 5 to 7.5 degrees in winter and 3 to 7 degrees in summer.
The higher temperatures will mean less snow throughout the Northeast. By the end of the century, the length of the winter snow season could be cut in half and the character of the seasons will change significantly if emissions are not reduced.
Already, the report said, climate is changing in noticeable ways. Temperatures have been rising, particularly in winter, snow cover is decreasing and spring is arriving earlier. That doesn't sound so bad, but the smaller snow pack and higher summer temperatures will reduce the water supply, which will be further depleted by a longer growing season. Annual droughts are probable.
"The character of the Northeast is already changing," said Katharine Hayhoe, a co-author of the report and research associate professor at Texas Tech University's Department of Geosciences. "Do we want to continue using fossil fuels at the present rate when we are, in effect, picking up the Northeast and moving it to the South?"
M. Granger Morgan, head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, said the conclusions of the new report are very similar to those of a U.S. Global Change Research Program study of climate change impacts on the United States done in 2000.
"We're already committed to significant climate change. The question is can we decarbonize the electric system of the U.S., and the answer is yes for about 20 percent more than the current delivered price of electricity," said Mr. Morgan, who did not participate in the study but is an internationally recognized expert on climate change policy. "People who argue that a policy like that will wreck our economy are not paying attention to the current technology available."
Though climate change is a global issue, the Northeast, from Pennsylvania through Maine, plays a big role. According to the report, the nine-state region produces more carbon dioxide emissions than all but six nations. In the Northeast, transportation emissions account for the most emissions, one-third of the total, and electric power plant emissions total just under one-third.
Peter Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists director of the Global Environment Program, said a simple "replacement strategy" -- using fuel-efficient, low-emission or no-emission technologies already available -- could allow the region, nation and world to reduce emissions by as much as 3 percent a year over the next 25 years.
"Right now we're adding fuel to a fire and it will burn more intensely if we don't make changes," said William Moomaw, professor and director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University. "Doing nothing is the worst action we can take."
The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment is a collaboration of the Union of Concerned Scientists and a 14-member team of climate experts to assess climate change and its impacts on the northeastern United States.
The group already has begun a follow-up round of analyses to assess climate change impacts on forests, agriculture, coastal areas, urban centers and human health, as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. A report is expected early next year.
"Our forests will be affected by higher temperatures and lower water, as will our agriculture and public health, even under the aggressive lowering of emissions. We need to prepare and cope with the changes because the impacts are now unavoidable," Mr. Frumhoff said.
"And our potential to cope is a factor of the emissions choices we make today. The chance we have now is to minimize the stresses on the system by minimizing emissions of heat-trapping gases."
(Don Hopey can be reached at dhopey@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1983. )