As a handful of lawmakers on Capitol Hill seek to stop U.S. EPA's new air pollution rules, saying the limits on toxic emissions would devastate the domestic cement industry, their gloomy estimates are belied by the upbeat projections from the industry's main trade group, according to a new analysis by the advocacy group Earthjustice.

The report responds to a resolution (H.J. Res. 9) introduced by Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) that would reject EPA's new performance standards for cement plants.

Under the Clean Air Act regulations, released in August, more than 15,000 American jobs could be lost to overseas competitors, Carter wrote in a "Dear Colleague" letter that asked fellow lawmakers to support the bill. The industry could lose 9 million tons of domestic cement production capacity, he said.

"Now is not the time to impose new regulations that kill American jobs and ship them overseas," the letter said.

Those estimates assume that U.S. demand for cement remains flat. But according to a high-priced analysis that was made available for purchase by the Skokie, Ill.-based Portland Cement Association last fall, after the release of EPA's final rules, the domestic cement industry will be booming for the next several years as it emerges from the dark days of the recession.

The trade group predicts U.S. cement production will increase by about 25 percent through 2013 and by 50 percent through 2015. Five years from now, PCA estimates, domestic production will be slightly below 100 million metric tons per year -- roughly the same level as it was at the peak of the housing and construction boom in 2005.

Between 2011 and 2015, the industry projections show, cement imports will total about 9.2 million metric tons per year -- the lowest level of any five-year period since 1996. From 2001 to 2005, for instance, the United States imported about 24.5 million metric tons of cement per year.

But the Portland Cement Association provided different numbers today, saying imports would rise from 5.9 million metric tons last year to an estimated 36 million metric tons in 2015, 62 million metric tons by 2020 and 82 million metric tons by 2025.

The contradiction between the figures on U.S. cement production and the numbers cited by Carter suggest that the trade group and its allies are talking out of both sides of their mouths, said James Pew, a staff attorney at Earthjustice who worked on the report.

"The cement industry can't simultaneously be expanding and contracting," Pew said in an interview. "There's simply no basis to think there will be any contraction or there will be any jobs lost."

In a statement today, the Portland Cement Association said all EPA's regulations -- not just the toxic pollution standards -- could result in the loss of 3,000 to 4,000 jobs in the domestic cement industry. From 2002 to 2007, the sector employed an average of 16,283 workers, according to PCA figures that were cited in the Earthjustice report.

"Regulations need to be based on science, preserve access to a strategic infrastructure asset and most importantly, protect the sanctity of U.S. jobs," the trade group said. "Without taking these elements into consideration, the administration is doing our nation a disservice."

John Stone, a spokesman for Carter, described the new report as "malarkey." He said Earthjustice was incorrect when the group contended that the Congressional Review Act resolution would permanently bar EPA from regulating the industry's toxic pollution.

"EPA needs to go back to the drawing board and draft reasonable new standards that reduce pollution in this industry," Stone said today. "These standards can be written and implemented in ways that do not unnecessarily cost jobs, and do not simply force production offshore to countries that do not have the environmental standards of the United States, effectively increasing global pollution."

There are not any cement plants in the congressman's district, but the facilities are a major driver of the Texas economy. Southwest of Carter's home in Round Rock, Texas, there are five kilns in the Interstate 35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio.

EPA's new rules would make these plants reduce their emissions of mercury, soot and other types of air pollution by more than 90 percent. These new controls, which would cost businesses an estimated $350 million to $377 million per year, are the reason critics have attacked EPA's new rules, Pew said.

National environmental groups have pounced on Carter's bill as part of an effort to argue that the new Republican majority in the House is putting corporate profits ahead of public health. EPA estimates that the rules would provide between $6.7 billion and $18 billion in annual health and environmental benefits.

"It has nothing to do with closing plants or losing jobs -- it's just about saving money," Pew said. "They're using a tried and true rationale for opposing regulations, which is slandering them as job-killers. It has no real substance, but that's not stopping them."

The regulations have been challenged in court by more than a dozen cement companies, as well as by environmentalists, who are mad that the rules do not limit greenhouse gases as well as toxic pollutants. Both sets of lawsuits are still in the preliminary stages.

Click here to read the Earthjustice analysis.

Click here to read Carter's "Dear Colleague" letter.